Weather Synopsis: Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) GFS Model (Data-base 25oct/00gmt 05:45AM NST):
(a) A significant low pressure system "Deep Depression" over Bay of Bengal has now strengthened into a "Cyclone". Latest indication (based upon NWP GFS Model with data based 24oct/12gmt and 25oct/00gmt) is that the Cyclone is projected to move Westward towards East coast of India over Caostal South Andhra Pradesh. Hence, no threat in any way to Nepal, weatherwise. (Still to be monitored closely for its movement changes! in the days ahead)
(b) No large external system to influence the weather events in Nepal for the period (26-30oct).
(c) Mostly good weather during the period but very weak pressure system of local origin over Nepal itself can help grow few clouds mostly during afternoons. Area in focus: High Himalaya and few places of E & C mid-mountains.
(d) Westwards of Dhaulagiri: drier weather for the period.
In the country context (26-30oct):
(i) Eastern Nepal & Central Nepal: Sunshine periods mostly but few clouds grow by daytime but clearing by nights in the mid-mountains. No surprise if brief period of Shower occur at one or two places during afternoon/evenings in the Eastern Nepal mid-mountains. Mornings: Usually good weather but some low level clouds.
(ii) Mid-west and Far-west Nepal: No significant system and hence better weather with periods of sunshine but few clouds by afternoons/evngs in mid-mountains.
Focus High Himalaya:
(1) Khumbu region:
Better mornings but some morning valley clouds but not in a big way. Some afternoon clouds grow by afternoons/evngs & smaller risks of brief period of Sn-shower.Some afternoon/evening clouds on 28oct would stay thru night.
(2) Annapurna-Manaslu region: Generally better weather but few clouds grow by afternoons and very smaller risk of brief Sn-flurries by afternoons/evngs due to local effect.
(1) Generally good weather for the period (26-30oct) but some clouds grow by afternoons (Area in focus: High Himalaya and few places in East and Central Mid mountains). Probability of precipitation (Shower or Sn-shower) are very small but no surprise if that occurs at one or two places for brief period in the high Himalayas during aftn/evng, especially over Khumbu and Anna-Manaslu region.
(3) Freezing level drops down to about: 4000-4200m due to high level winds.
Note: Freezing level refers to the level of 0C Temperature.